Key points:
The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.
Equities: S&P 500 futures halted their strong move higher yesterday, but still sitting above the 5,300 level. While markets traded flat yesterday there was a lot of trading activity and positive returns in the long tail of stocks outside the S&P 500 Index suggesting animal spirits are back in markets. Chinese retail sales and home prices figures for April suggest that the domestic slump continues in China and that the only bright spot is exports. Equities in focus in Europe this morning are Siemens Energy as the CEO says troubles will continue in its onshore wind turbine business and Richemont reporting better than expected fiscal year results. We a quiet session ahead of the weekend as traders await next week’s Fed speakers, Eurozone May preliminary PMI figures, and Nvidia earnings on Wednesday.
FX: The dollar rebounded from a one-month low as Treasury yields strengthened following comments from the Fed about maintaining steady rates until inflation recedes. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is nevertheless heading for a small weekly loss around 0.5% with broad gains being led by GBP, EUR and AUD. Yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds saw a small increase after various Federal Reserve officials, including Thomas Barkin, John Williams, and Loretta Mester, emphasized the need for more evidence before adjusting interest rates to address inflation. Jobless claims and building permits came in near forecast, while import prices in April saw the largest monthly increase in two years. Meanwhile the offshore yuan weakened amid geopolitical developments involving China, Russia, and the US. Implied mostly eased as risk reversals moved contrary to the dollar's gains.
Commodities: The Bloomberg Commodity Total Return index, up 8% Year-to-date, has reached a 15-month high as it attempts to break a range that has prevailed for more than a year. Gains this past week being led by industrial metals with copper still up around 5% despite seeing the short-covering squeeze in New York run out of steam. The energy sector trades higher, led by an +8% rally in natural gas which is being supported by lower US production and increased flows to a major LNG export facility, while a rangebound crude oil market is focusing on the next move from OPEC+ as they prepare to meet next month. A strong week for silver, hovering just below key resistance around $30 and platinum which broke above its long-held range while gold’s weekly gain almost vanished after Fed speakers talked down the prospect of an imminent rate cut. The grains sector rally pauses as traders watch weather developments in Russia, the US and impact of flooding in southern Brazil.
Fixed income: Yesterday, Federal Reserve officials generally maintained their higher-for-longer stance, while oil prices rose and market volatility decreased, resulting in a bear flattening of the yield curve. By the close of trading, U.S. 10-year yields had risen by approximately 3.5 basis points to 4.375%, while 2-year yields rose by 7.2 basis points to 4.79%, the largest selloff since April. Comments from Fed speakers led traders to adjust their rate cut expectations for the year, reducing the anticipated rate cuts from nearly 50 basis points to about 43 basis points by the December FOMC meeting. European sovereigns reversed some of Wednesday’s gains due to higher-than-expected April U.S. import prices, despite ECB's Kazaks and Villeroy reiterating that cuts are likely to begin in June and be gradual. Ten-year bund yields rose by 3.7 basis points, closing the day at 2.45%. Today, the focus is on the final reading of the Eurozone CPI, expected to come in flat from March at 2.4% headline and 2.7% core. Also in focus are ECB speakers, including Vasle, Guindos, Vujcic, Holzmann, and Jazbec, as well as BoE's Mann.
Technical analysis highlights: S&P500 uptrend potential to 5,400. Nasdaq 100 uptrend potential to 19K. DAX uptrend likely to reach 19,285 EURUSD rejected at resistance at 1.0885, a daily close above potential to 1.10. GBPUSD strong resistance at 1.2710. USDJPY bouncing from 0.618 retracement, resumes uptrend potential to 158.45. EURJPY bounced from 0.382 retracement upside potential to 170. AUDUSD broken resist at 0.6650 upside potential to 0.6750. USDCHF testing key support at 0.90, likely to rebound and resume uptrend Gold rejected at 2,400 but uptrend intact potential to 2,430. Silver testing resist at 29.80, expect correction. Copper toppish expect correction down to 470-460. US 10-year T-yield bouncing from support to 4.29
Volatility: The VIX showed minimal movement on Thursday, closing at $12.42 (-0.03 | -0.24%). With no significant economic events or earnings reports scheduled, market volatility is expected to remain subdued heading into the weekend, with the only potential source of volatility today being the monthly expirations of options, as it is the third Friday of the month. Futures reflect this calm outlook: VIX futures are trading at 13.750 (+0.01 | +0.08%), while S&P500 and Nasdaq 100 futures are at 5320.50 (+0.25 | +0.01%) and 1866.30 (+13.50 | +0.07%), respectively. Yesterday's top 10 traded stock options, in order: Tesla, NVIDIA, Advanced Micro Devices, Faraday Future Intelligent Electric, AMC Entertainment, GameStop, Alibaba, Apple, Walmart, and Amazon.
Macro: Weekly jobless claims decreased to 222,000 from 232,000 the previous week, slightly above the consensus of 220,000. The 4-week moving average increased to 217,750 from the previous week's 215,250. Continued claims rose to 1.794 million from 1.781 million the previous week, and the U.S insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at 1.2%. The Philadelphia Fed business conditions for May were reported at 4.5, falling below the consensus of 8.0 and April's 15.5. The prices paid index was 18.7, down from April's 23.0, while the new orders index was -7.9 compared to April's 12.2. The employment index was -7.9, an improvement from April's -10.7, and the six-month business conditions for May were 32.4, down from April's 34.3. U.S. April housing starts increased by 5.7% to a 1.36 million unit rate, falling short of the estimated 1.42 million rate, following a 16.8% decline in March to 1.287 million units. Single-family starts in April decreased by 0.4% to a 1.031 million unit rate, while multifamily starts increased by 30.6% to a 329,000-unit rate. U.S. April housing permits fell by 3.0% to a 1.44 million unit rate, compared to the prior reading of 1.485 million units. China’s two-speed recovery on clear display in the latest data after retail sales grew at the slowest pace since 2022 while industrial production accelerated, highlighting the unbalanced recovery of the world’s 2. biggest economy. Retail sales rose 2.3% in April, down from 3.1% in March and worse than the 3.7% predicted. Industrial production meanwhile rose 6.7% YoY vs 5.5% expected, another sign China’s export-driven manufacturing sector has supported the economy this year, while the housing crisis continues to weigh on domestic demand.
In the news: Walmart surges to all-time high as earnings beat on high-income shopper (CNBC), Chinese retailer JD.com reports Q1 revenue above estimates (BT), Fed remains cautious on cuts even as data improves (Reuters), China consumption slows as retail sales and investment data disappoint (CNBC),
Macro events: Eurozone CPI (April Final), exp no change at 2.4% YoY (0900), US Leading Index (Apr) exp unchanged at –0.3% (1400), CFTC and ICE Europe’s weekly Commitment of Traders reports (2000)
Earnings events: Light earnings calendar today. Next big earnings focus is on Nvidia reporting earnings next Wednesday.
For all macro, earnings, and dividend events check Saxo’s calendar
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
